Fitch: U.S. Lodging Upcycle Continues Despite Heightened Macroeconomic Risk
January 20, 2012 by Steve-LubaLodging demand trends continue on a solid recovery trajectory, despite heightened global macroeconomic risk stemming from European sovereign debt concerns and a slowdown in China, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings.
Fitch’s report, ’2012 Lodging & Timeshare Outlook: The Penthouse View,’ provides a cross-sector perspective of the industry. Positive operating fundamentals support a stable outlook across four subsectors, including lodging C-Corps, lodging real estate investment trusts (REITs), CMBS with high hotel exposures, and timeshare asset-backed securities (ABS).
Hotel property-level operating performance should continue its solid improvement in 2012-2013 as a result of a favorable supply/demand outlook.
U.S. RevPAR remains roughly 5% below the 2007 peak. Fitch’ 2012 base case currently reflects 4%-5% industrywide RevPAR growth in the U.S., followed by mid-single-digit growth in 2013.
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